Demography

Alzheimer's Society position statement

The number of people with dementia is steadily increasing. The Alzheimer's Society believes that careful planning for the future is needed now to ensure that the right care and support is available.

The report Dementia UK, published in February 2007, provides the most up-to-date evaluation of the numbers of people with dementia in the UK, projections on numbers of people in the future and the prevalence of dementia.

Background

There are currently about 700,000 people in the UK with a form of dementia
Over 15,000 people with dementia are aged under 65 years
One in 14 people over 65 years of age and one in six people over 80 years of age has a form of dementia

The number of people with dementia in the UK has been estimated by applying new prevalence figures to estimates of population numbers for 2005:

England: 574,717
Scotland: 56,106
Northern Ireland: 15,850
Wales: 36,924
Total number of people with dementia: 683,597

Prevalence and incidence

When talking about demography it is important to distinguish between prevalence - the frequency with which dementia occurs in the population, and incidence - the number of new cases of dementia in a given time period.

The well established prevalence rates for dementia in the UK are:

40-64 years: 1 in 1400
65-69 years: 1 in 100
70-79 years: 1 in 25
80+ years: 1 in 6

Projected growth

It is estimated that by 2021 there will be about 940,000 people with dementia in the UK
This is expected to rise to over 1.7 million people with dementia by 2051.

Many people talk about the 'demographic time bomb' or 'tidal wave' of older people, which the state cannot afford to cater for. The Society believes that this is misleading. A steady, rather than dramatic growth is expected over the next 25 years. The Society's contribution to the Royal Commission on Long Term Care highlights the belief that the state can provide for people's needs as they age. The use of phrases such as the demographic time bomb, or the view that older people are a burden on our society, does not encourage the view that a sustainable system can be developed.

Alzheimer's disease is the most common form of dementia. The proportions of those with different forms of dementia can be broken down as follows:

Alzheimer's disease (AD): 62%
Vascular dementia (VaD): 17%
Mixed dementia (AD and VaD): 10%
Dementia with Lewy bodies: 4%
Fronto-temporal dementia: 2%
Parkinson's dementia: 2%
Other dementias: 3%

Younger people and dementia

Dementia in people under the age of 65 is comparatively rare. There are over 15,000 younger people with dementia in the UK. However, this number is likely to be an under estimate and the true figure may be up to three times higher. Data on the numbers of young onset cases are based on referrals to services, which can significantly underestimate the numbers, because not all those with young onset dementia seek help early in the disease course.

People from black and minority ethnic groups and dementia

It is estimated that there are about 11,000 people from black and minority ethnic (BME) groups with dementia. It is noteworthy that 6.1% of all people with dementia among BME groups are young onset, compared with only 2.2% for the UK population as a whole, reflecting the younger age profile of BME communities.

The proportion of older people from ethnic minority groups in the UK is small, but increasing steadily as this section of the population ages. It is therefore predicted that the number of people with dementia from BME groups will rise quickly. However, many services for people with dementia from these communities remain inappropriate and inaccessible.

The Society's Black and Minority Ethnic Communities Project was set up to increase our understanding and to share our knowledge of dementia by working in partnership with people from the black and minority ethnic communities in London. The Society provided grants to enable partner organisations to improve their understanding of dementia, develop services and resources for people with dementia, and improve access to mainstream and specialist services. The Society has worked with partner organisations to develop new and improved day-centre provision for African Caribbean people with dementia, increase awareness and outreach in both the South Asian and Chinese community.

People with a learning disability and dementia

People with learning disabilities may experience a higher risk of dementia because of premature ageing. Also, people with Down's syndrome have an increased genetic risk of developing dementia. Additional specialist support and services need to be provided to meet their increasing needs.

Dementia worldwide

The number of people with dementia is expected to increase steadily over the next 25 years:

There are over 5 million people with dementia in Europe
There are nearly 18 million people with dementia in the world
By 2025 there will be about 34 million people with dementia in the world
By 2025 71 per cent of people with dementia will live in developing countries.

The Society campaigns for:

Strategic health authorities to research and record both the numbers and projected needs of all people with dementia in order to plan long term care services for them appropriately.
All dementia services to be culturally sensitive. The needs of all people with dementia need to be met and person-centred care delivered.
Further collaboration with international partners to promote the exchange of information and practice. The Alzheimer's Society is a member of Alzheimer's International and Alzheimer Europe.

Further information

Knapp, M., Prince, M. et al. (2007) Dementia UK (A report to the Alzheimer's Society on the prevalence and economic cost of dementia in the UK produced by King's College London and London School of Economics). Alzheimer's Society: London.

Alzheimer's Society (2004) Learning disabilities and dementia (information sheet). London.

Alzheimer's Disease International (1999) The Prevalence of Dementia (Factsheet). London.

Alzheimer's Society (1998) Submission to the Royal Commission on long term care for older people. London.

Alzheimer's Disease International, 45/46 Lower Marsh, London SE1 7RG. Tel: 020 7620 3011

Last updated: May 2007